An Explosion of Digital Spaces
When globalisation was the accepted narrative, the accepted goal for all nations, the idea of a few layer 1 blockchains winning out and taking most of the use cases seemed reasonable. After all, if there is one society and all are connected, able to share and communicate, then redundancies would gradually erode and economies of scale would select a few winners. Even with gloablisation, the idea of "we're all the same and we can all use the same networks" was never really a reality beyond a few big players, like Facebook and Google. And even they lost market share to more 'local' product offerings, like Kakao and Naver in Korea. Now that globaisation has well and truly broken, or been exposed, depending on how you look at it, it is worth looking at the possibility of localised or targeted Layer 1 blockchains becoming more common. As a spoiler, I think the main weakness of this hypothetical, and of blockchains in general, is security.
There is still a popular conception of the future of blockchains with an underlying assumption gloabalisation. More specifically, the idea of peace, togetherness, sharing and engagement, and all this in the digital world. This is looking increasingly doubtful. What is becoming more likely is a world separated, once again, into spheres of influence, into blocks and territory that, as part of their security, seek to control the very things blockchains are attempting to disrupt. Finance, communication, social networks, culture are all battelgrounds for the control of populations. A layer 1 presents a player in this battle, as the digital space is a field, and if these wars get hot, and governemnts get involved, a decentralised layer 1 that spans the globe is unlikely.
I am reminded of the great cyberpunk novels of William Gibson, especially "Neuromancer". There were areas, economies, societies, that were in many ways cut off. There were people that never left an area, had their whole lives tied to a way of life that did not seem to need the outside world. I am describing the past and the future, and no doubt the present. Just because a blockchain could span all these spaces doesn't mean it will. I think many will prefer that it didn't. Many will be attracted to something different, separate, unique, however much these qualities are redundant or simply memes. A variety of blockchains will evolve in different ways much like species given the conditions of the environment they thrive in.
And whenever I think and play out a scenario of multiple layer 1's being born, dying, new ones being born again, the technical limitation comes back to security. How do these chains provide, pay for, guarantee security? Especially given the availability of security as a layer 2 to Ethereum. Perhaps there is a way. Perhaps there is a trade off, and security is what is traded for something equally valuable, at least in the short term. Perhaps for anonymity. Perhaps for services not readily available on other chains. And most likely of all, perhaps a trade is made for a greater sense of community. The invaluable network and connection will perhaps become only achievable for some outside the mainstream, outside the majority, outside whatever is established. A new generation, a new way of life, a new belief system, all these may call for, desire, a pristine chain, separate and distinct.
For many movements, building on a layer 1, or spinning up a new layer 2, will suffice. And there will be some groups, some movements where this is simply not enough. For all the benefits of decentralization, centralization will still hold an attraction, even a necessity. And of course you can just spin up a centralized layer 2.
For some a whole chain will be too much and a DAO will be all that is needed. Again there are decentralized resources, like Aragorn, that can provide the service.
So why build your own chain? Why go to so much trouble? Simply because it is new and distinct and you can show proof of work. And this will attract people. When spinning up a lyer 2 is as simple as setting up an email account, or perhaps a website on wix.com, the work required to build something new will be of extremely high value. Like a brand name on a $2 t-shit, membership in something separate, guarded, exclusive, will be desired.
The high end. And the low end. For the black markets, the new generations, the weird, occupying the same territory, wearing the same digital clothes as those you oppose or have nothing in common with will be repulsive. To be in the same space as the established and accepted will be repulsive. Blockchains as environments will spawn a plethora of different and distinct fields. A hard fork, or the ever present young developer, will fill niches that are proliferating in a world broken into very small pieces. An explosion of digital spaces.